The echoes about the threats facing the European Union are increasingly louder. Now, when Russian troops plan another major offensive on Ukraine, the leaders of the Union call to prepare society to face “all dangers” and crises. The heads of State and Government of the 27 Member States of the EU debate at a meeting in Brussels how to finance European rearmament – an Estonian proposal to issue Eurobonds is on the table – and the formulas to launch this military reinforcement and promote the defense industry, which follows the path of a metamorphosis marked by the Russian invasion, by Vladimir Putin's threats to the community club and by a turbulent global board. The war goes beyond launching missiles and society must be aware, they warn in a clear change of language. Talking about the preparation of civil society marks a change in pattern in the EU.
“The European Council underlines the imperative need to improve and coordinate military and civil preparedness and strategic crisis management in the context of the changing threat landscape,” the leaders say in the draft declaration for the summit this Thursday and Friday in the community capital.
“We must send a strong message to Russia,” launched the President of the Government of Spain, Pedro Sánchez. “We need to strengthen our deterrence capacity, reinforce the defense industry and articulate a European defense strategy,” he commented upon arriving at the Brussels summit. “Security is a European public good. “Europe is a peace project and to guarantee that peace we need to increase our deterrence capacity, so that there are no temptations by authoritarian regimes like that of (Vladímir) Putin that call into question that space of freedoms and democracy that Europe represents,” added the head of the Spanish Executive in a clear change of tone. Although Spain, like other countries geographically distant from Russia, disagrees with the use of the concept that the EU must move to a “war economy” – which has been launched, among others, by the president of the European Council, Charles Michel – and also with the scale of the effort, which advocates dedicating more to research and development and cybersecurity.
The third year of the Russian invasion of Ukraine is advancing and there is concern about the possibility that the United States will stop supporting Kiev, that Donald Trump will return to the White House and that Washington's protection of its European allies will falter. In this scenario, the Twenty-seven call for proposing “actions to strengthen preparation and response to crises” with an approach that includes the entire society and “all dangers.” EU leaders seek to lay the foundations for a “future preparation strategy,” according to the document to which EL PAÍS has had access.
Report on how to prepare
The smell of the Cold War is increasingly intense. The European Commission has commissioned former Finnish President Sauli Niinisto to report on how to improve Europe's civil and defense preparedness. His country, which shares more than 1,000 kilometers of border with Russia, has had a civil defense strategy in place for decades that includes preparation for military crises, hybrid threats and natural disasters.
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The EU, aware of its vulnerability, fears cyber attacks that paralyze services, attacks on civil infrastructure – such as energy installations or telecommunications cables – and massive disinformation campaigns. Germany's intelligence services have warned that Russia may attack an EU country in 2026; A similar warning – although with different temporary scenarios – has also been made by Sweden, Estonia and Denmark, where women will begin to be called up for military service. Other countries, such as Belgium, are considering returning to the reservist system.
The EU is advancing in its rearmament and underpinning a new strategy to finance its defense industry, which it had neglected for years. But in a context of tight budgets, it is debating how to pay for the continent's largest rearmament since the Cold War. Estonia has proposed issuing joint Eurobonds – €100 billion – to support Ukraine and the defense industry. This joint debt proposal has the support of France, in more generic terms and linked to the defense industry, and Poland. But at the moment Germany, the Netherlands and Denmark reject it.
The president of the European Council has also embraced the idea of Eurobonds launched by Estonia and supported by France. “Another efficient way to reinforce our technological, industrial and innovation base can be the issuance of European bonds in the field of defense in order to raise funds to purchase material or invest in our industry,” he stated in an article in this diary. But the Eurobond proposal is not mature, according to a high-ranking community source. “We have a financing problem for the defense industry,” said Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas. “We have proposed Eurobonds, but if that doesn't work we will propose something else,” she remarked.
There are other formulas on the table, such as changing the credit policy of the European Investment Bank (EIB) to allow financing of arms companies, although for now the leaders propose expanding the definition of dual-use goods – military and civil, such as drones, radars and certain materials—to broaden the spectrum of financing. Or use to arm Ukraine the benefits that Russian assets immobilized by sanctions in the EU are generating and which could amount to around 3 billion euros. Russia is estimated to spend 6% of its GDP on defense this year, while average spending in the EU remains below NATO's target of 2% of GDP. The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has demanded this Thursday the use of these benefits fallen from heaven. “Russia must feel the real cost of war and the need for a just peace,” the Ukrainian leader said in a video conference with EU leaders.
The EU has promised to maintain support for Ukraine, although it is increasingly difficult to take historic steps in that support. The war is dragging on and the future enlargement towards the east, with kyiv as a candidate, has already caused some friction in neighboring countries, such as Poland. There, farmers have been protesting for months against Ukrainian products that enter the EU without tariffs since the beginning of the invasion. They claim that they are being harmed. The Twenty-Seven will also discuss the agricultural protests, which have set the agenda in several Member States, and measures to protect the European market. Poland and France are calling for more restrictions to be placed on more Ukrainian products – safeguards were imposed months ago on a group of products to neighboring countries – which could mean a loss of about 1.2 billion euros for Ukraine. Germany, on the other hand, has warned of the consequences of these restrictions and of any steps that could harm Ukraine.
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