The 2024 Oscar gala will be held on March 10, during the early hours of Sunday to Monday in Spain and the die has already been cast and the pools point to several almost indisputable favorites to win the Oscar. Will it be the big night for Christopher Nolan and his Oppenheimer ? Maybe, but there are historical cases like that of La La Land (who took almost everything except the jackpot) that can make us doubt. As for the acting categories, it would be too surprising if Cillian Murphy (leading actor for Oppenheimer), his partner, Robert Downey Jr. (secondary by Oppenheimer) y Da’Vine Joy Randolph (supporting actress for Those who stay) did not go up to collect their award. Best Leading Actress, however, is closer between Emma Stone (poor creatures) y Lily Gladstone ( The Moon Killers) Will The Snow Society be the best non-English speaking film? It's difficult for him but it could be.
The year of Nolan?
Yes, Oppenheimer It is the most nominated film but that doesn't mean anything. has a good chance of becoming the best film of the year since, with Barbie without many options, he would face, above all, with Anatomy of a fall y The Moon Killers. Of course, Scorsese's film has many handicaps. It is true that it is good and that it touches on a topic with which Hollywood has a moral debt (the extermination of the indigenous people) but it is still historical revisionism created by a white man. The way things are in the US in terms of racial diversity, that could work against the film starring Leonardo Dicaprio (who, by the way, has been one of the great forgotten of the nominations).
One important thing must be taken into account: the real prelude to the Oscars are the Screen Actors Guild Awards that were presented on February 24. Because? The actors guild has the most members in the Hollywood academy and, almost always, its winners tend to coincide with those of the Oscars. What movie was successful? Oppenheimer. Little more to add.
What would be the surprise? Barbie. Okay, neither the director, Greta Gerwig, nor the protagonist and producer, Margot Robbie, have been nominated, but let's remember the case of Argo (2012) that won the most important award and its director, Ben Affleck, was not even a candidate. And speaking of the directing category, this year, Nolan has no rival.
Mejor actor: ¿Cillian Murphy o Paul Giamatti?
In this section, there are two supposed favorites at the 2024 Oscars: Cillian Murphy, for OppenheimerPaul Giamatti, by Those who stay. And we say 'supposed' because, in reality, the first one has absolutely every chance of winning the Oscar. His 'rival' has in his favor that he is quite beloved in Hollywood but, although his work in Alexander Payne's film is excellent, he has little to do against Murphy.
Secondary actors: the clearest awards
The Academy could go ahead and write down the names of Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) and Da'Vine Joy Randolph (Those who stay) in the respective Oscars that they will win on March 10. They deserve it? Yes. Him because he is a legendary star who must be recognized, finally, in a prestigious way or not only for his box office successes. Da'Vine Joy Randolph is the best of Those who stay with one of those characters that make movies grow. Too bad Emily Blunt is leaving empty-handed (my heart goes out to her).
Best actress: a closer Oscar
Until a couple of weeks ago, everything indicated that Emma Stone was going to win her second Oscar thanks to her spectacular work in Poor Creatures. She has won the Golden Globe, the Bafta and several other awards. She is a much loved star in Hollywood and her performance deserves all the praise. However, on February 24, a script twist occurred. Lily Gladstone The Moon Killers) triumphed at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. His work in Scorsese's film is masterful but the Oscars are also political. Gladstone is the first Native American actress to be nominated in this category. These types of details, in the end, weigh a lot.
Note: If it were up to me, the Oscar would be named after Sandra Hüller for Anatomy of a fall. In fact it could be a quite viable alternative. Stranger things have been seen (Roberto Benigni for Life is Beautiful, For example).
Does Bayonne have options?
It would not be surprising if on March 10 JA Bayona collects his first Oscar for Best Foreign Language Film. It has several things in its favor. First, the film deserves it. Second, Netflix has run a brutal campaign like the one it did last year with All Quiet on the Front (which won in this category). Third, Bayona is very loved in Hollywood, has many academic friends and has worked with Spielberg himself.
Bayona only has one problem: The area of interest. The film directed by Jonathan Glazer, although it is an English production, is shot in German but it does start with an advantage over The Snow Societyand it is because, in addition to Best Foreign Language Film, it is up for the Oscar for Best Film, Best Direction, Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Sound (it has this one for sure).
Historically, every film that has been nominated for Best Picture and Best Foreign Film has won in the latter category (only the Korean film Parasite won in both). Furthermore, it must be taken into account that The area of interest (in addition to being very good) it addresses the Nazi holocaust, and that, at a time when, from the United States, it is necessary to support the Jewish people for the war in Gaza, it is something that can weigh when academics vote .