Erdogan will not run for re-election. Or at least that's what he promised. The announcement by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has just turned 70 and has led the country for 21 years, has caught everyone by surprise, firstly because it was not written in the speech he gave on Friday night at a foundation. close to the Government. And secondly, because he still has four years left in his term and, according to his interpretation of the Constitution, he could opt for one more term.
“I work non-stop. We are in a race that takes our breath away. Because for me, it is a final,” he said, referring to the municipal elections that will be held on March 31 and in whose campaign Erdogan has been deeply involved, because he attaches great importance to them: he intends for his Justice Party and the Development (AKP) regain control of important city councils such as those of Istanbul or Ankara, where the social democratic opposition won in 2019 after a quarter of a century of Islamist control. “According to the law, these (the municipal ones) are my last elections; Its result will mean a transfer of responsibilities to the brothers who will come after me,” he added.
His statements have been received with some skepticism. “He has already made similar announcements in the past,” recalls Selim Koru, academic and analyst of the think-tank TEPAV: “It is aimed at generating a sentimental response in dissatisfied voters (with the AKP) who could go to the YRP.” This ultra-conservative formation, the New Welfare Party (YRP), founded by the son of Erdogan's political mentor and which has recruited former AKP officials, ran in last year's elections within the coalition led by the Islamist president, but In the local ones he has decided to attend on his own. Polls show that it could achieve very good results in certain provinces and is taking away important portions of the vote from the AKP, which could prevent it from reaching mayoralties where the result will be played in a few percentage points.
The opposition newspaper Republic He recalled the occasions when Erdogan has promised that a certain electoral process would be his last. For example, about the 2011 elections. Or, in 2012, when he promised that it would be the last time he would become president of the AKP. “Those times he also told the truth. Those of 2011 were the last legislative elections in which he stood and after 2014 he abandoned the party presidency and only returned (in 2017) after the resignation of two other presidents, so he complied with the party rule that we can only hold office continuously for three terms,” says a source from Erdogan's party: “So yes, these will be his last elections. Unless there is a legislative change.” This source did not want to confirm or deny whether this legislative change is part of the party's or the Government's plans during this legislature.
Uncertainty
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Within the party not everyone is clear about what the future will be. An AKP youth leader believes that Erdogan will step aside to allow the new generations to pass. On the other hand, an active party deputy believes that Erdogan's statements should not be read as if he were retiring: “His words had already been read like this on previous occasions and then, in parliamentary group meetings, he told us that his words “They had misunderstood each other.” The deputy also points out that the law would allow Erdogan to run for a new term in the event that the presidential elections are brought forward at the request of three-fifths of the chamber (for this, the government coalition would need votes from some opposition parties). .
Journalist Kemal Öztürk, Erdogan's former advisor and columnist for several media outlets close to the ruling party, maintains that although the president's message seeks to “influence the municipal campaign,” this time, his eventual withdrawal “is more credible.” . Furthermore, Öztürk believes that it is a “wake-up call” from Erdogan to his party to wake up and achieve good results in the local elections: “The AKP cadres and leaders have to start preparing to attend elections without Erdogan. “He cannot get used to, as in the past, always winning thanks to Erdogan's charisma.”
For the moment, Erdogan has not pointed to anyone as a successor, in a party in which the fight between factions is ruthless, although latent. Characters who had previously stood out as possible dolphins have either been relegated to the background – such as former Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu – or have disappeared from the scene, such as Erdogan's son-in-law and former Finance Minister, Berat Albayrak. Some analysts point to the former head of the secret services and current Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan, but he lacks support among the party's bases and the charisma of a political leader. Or Erdogan's other son-in-law, Selçuk Bayraktar – owner of the important drone company Baykar – who is very popular among the Turkish population but lacks political experience.
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