Last week we analyzed the behavior of the Spanish economy throughout 2022, while we review the main forecasts that experts are working with for 2023, which is not intended to make things easy for the economy. The inertia of the intense demand that originated as a consequence of the recovery has been feeding the economy during the first months of the year, but arriving in the last few quarters, the intense economic slowdown that the planet is experiencing as a consequence of the policies applied to combat the Inflation is putting many economies in the world against the ropes.
In the case of spainthe intense recovery to which the planet continues to be subjected, especially in the first months of the year, has led us to register a growth rate for the past year that, according to the AIReF, could be above 5%. With this data in hand, it is not a bad figure if we take into account the problems that we have had to face over the past year. But we must point out that this data is not intended to be repeated in the new year, as all the organizations already show in their projections for 2023.
Despite the fact that the Spanish economy will be the economy that will lead growth in the region, the expansion of the Spanish economy that all organizations foresee for the next financial year it stands at 1.3%. And yes, it is true that it will be the highest growth rate recorded in the euro area, but this does not mean that it has moderated substantially compared to 2022, which closed with 5.4%. And to this we must add other issues, such as the starting point, which also do not validate that misleading comparison in which we claim to be the locomotive of the euro area economies as a whole.
In this sense, and as I said in the last column, we must not forget that, to date, spain It is the only euro economy that has not recovered its level of GDP prior to the pandemic. The peninsular economy, as we know, is the economy that leads unemployment, both general and youth, in Europe.
as far as debt refersWith a debt that amounts to over 115% of GDP, Spain has already established itself as the fourth European country with the highest level of debt. And despite all this, we claim to lead an economy like Germany, which recovered its previous level of GDP in early 2022 with a debt of 70% of GDP, or as Netherlands, which is also fully recovered and with a debt level of 52%.
For all these reasons, we can say that we have had a good 2022, but we cannot indulge ourselves with a ranking that places us at the head of a group of economies, when andn the real ranking we go last. The Spanish economy, based on the latest forecasts for the Bank of Spain, This being what I was going to discuss in this article and I was going to communicate with him, he could return to the level of GDP prior to the pandemic, hopefully and if things go well, in the spring. Between April and June, according to the forecasts offered by the Spanish central bank, spain it could return to that pre-pandemic level of GDP, from which we will start real growth.
So far, the growth we claim to be recording is really just a rebound. The GDP level of the Spanish economyDespite the growth of 2021 and last year, it is still below what the peninsular economy had before the pandemic collapse. And with the new forecasts published by the central bank, in which the body revised the GDP growth forecasts for 2022 upwards, and those for 2023 and 2024 downwards, Spain would begin to grow and get out of the rut we are in. rebounding in the spring, when the growth of the first quarter leads us to recover that level of GDP that, to date, has kept us behind the Europeans.
In this sense, I have little more to say. With these data in hand, we can continue to indulge ourselves, focusing the debate on absurd little battles that try to polarize society. However, there is no greater blind than the one who does not want to see. The improvement is real, but the road for the Spanish economy, far from being over, is the longest among the economies that make up the monetary union. And if we do not work to stimulate an economy that needs growth, we will remain stagnant and weakened for one last round in which we will risk everything. The data is on the table, now it’s time to work.
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