The president of the Generalitat Valenciana, the socialist Ximo Puig, together with the vice president Héctor Illueca, from Podem, and Mónica Oltra, from Compromís, in the Valencian Cortes, in an image from September 2021. Mònica Torres
The situation in which Mónica Oltra is left, after passing through the courts, will not only affect her party, Compromís, which will have a candidate released from judicial suspicion if the case is filed for managing the abuses of her ex-husband to a minor. To a greater or lesser extent, the parties of the so-called Govern del Botànic (PSPV-PSOE, Compromís and Podem) will bear the consequences of both a “free” Oltra and a leader who continues to be charged. Among the socialist ranks they are aware that the return of the leader of Compromís to politics will very possibly report a better result to add seats and revalidate the progressive government in the next regional elections in the spring of 2023. Most likely, coincide with the municipal ones on May 28.
A survey carried out by the PSPV at the end of the political term gives the left-wing bloc a slight advantage that would allow the Generalitat to govern again. In the 2019 elections, the left won by just 40,000 votes over the right-wing bloc. This party poll gives the Socialists an even better result than that obtained in the previous elections and, therefore, does not predict that there will be wear and tear by itself or by the management of its leader, the Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, during the pandemic and the economic crisis caused by inflation. The Socialists are working on a more presidential campaign, more personalist, more Ximo Puig and less PSOE. Post-pandemic surveys gave it a good citizen evaluation. The leader of the Valencian Socialists also seeks to attract some votes from the expected bloodletting of Ciudadanos, which in 2019 was the third party with the most votes with 18 seats (by 27, the PSPV; 19, the PP; 17, Compromís; 10, Vox; and eight, Podem).
The fact that the aforementioned survey places Podem with the possibility of staying out of the parliamentary arch did not sit well with the party that, in any case, currently has an open crisis with Esquerra Unida. Some of its leaders believe in the need to agree with Compromís on a joint list that allows them to add as many votes as possible. If this were to happen, the presence of Oltra in the lists would drag a good result.
The truth is that the sum of PSOE, Compromís and Podemos widened their advantage in the polls at the beginning of the legislature, but in the most recent ones, the sum of PP and Vox shorten the distance to the race. In the province of Alicante, the right has become strong. The PP came to fear the sorpasso of Vox there, although now the expectations of the ultra party have been reduced and those of the popular ones, who govern in the Alicante capital and in the Provincial Council, have increased.
Everything happens, to a large extent, through Valencia and its metropolitan area, which concentrate 1.5 million of the five million inhabitants of the Valencian Community. According to all the indications, the current mayor of Valencia, Joan Ribó, will present himself again and will announce it this Tuesday, despite his initial reluctance. At 75 years old, he is the best possible poster for Compromís. The socialist deputy mayor, Sandra Gómez, 37, has stepped forward, but her candidacy raises some doubts among the socialist ranks.
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Between the PP and the other parties on the right, Oltra’s future is not crucial, but it is important. The popular ones have focused on Oltra a good part of their criticism and, in the event that he comes out of the case unscathed, it would be a point that would play against him. The popular ones, however, will have the impetus of the renewed leadership of Alberto Núñez Feijóo, with the inertia of the vote in a national key and with most of the sack of support achieved in 2019 by Ciudadanos. All this could counteract the lesser knowledge of its candidate, Carlos Mazón, current president of the Diputación de Alicante.
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