Stock markets will start the week with the result of the Italian elections. The great favorite to prevail, Giorgia Melonicauses concern in Europe for its strong criticism of the EU, as well as its opposition to the government of the pro-European Mario Draghi and his economic recipes and, even, lately, the request for review of the recovery plan to manage the extraordinary European funds.
In addition, investors will be awaiting the first reading of the CPI for September and consumer confidence in the same month in the eurozone, key data given the persistence of high inflationary pressure and its implications for the ECB decision making.
The general secretary at the Spanish Institute of Financial Analysts (IEAF), Javier Mendez Llerahas highlighted that next week the factors that have made a dent in recent times, in reference to increases in interest rates, will continue to affect the stock markets.
In the opinion of Méndez de Llera, very high rates to combat inflation will end up affecting the economy, so that “long-term” They shouldn’t be that high.
He added that “the most important thing right now is to see how long the impact of the change in monetary policy will affect the bond market” and “how much more will the yield curve invert”, since this will indicate how strong “a foreseeable recession” can be. Lastly, he pointed out that the start of the season for new business results “could calm the stock market down a bit.”
This Monday the IFO institute will publish its September business sentiment survey in Germany, projecting the consensus of analysts to fall 1.7 points to 86.8, as indicated Singular Bank.
In addition, on Tuesday the global economic forecasts of the OECDin an environment of constant downward revisions of economic growth and upward revisions of the inflation rate.
The most awaited day is Friday when Eurostat releases the first estimate of the evolution of prices in the eurozone in September, a data of special relevance due to the inflation rate.
In the US, after the decision this week of the Reserva Federal (Fed) After raising its interest rates by 75 basis points and pointing to further increases in the future, attention will turn to the third reading of GDP for the second quarter and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence indicator.
Specifically, the Conference Board will publish this Consumer Confidence data on Tuesday in a situation marked by the war in Ukraine, high inflation, the rise in interest rates and the rise in energy prices.
In the Asia-Pacific region, after the decisions of the People’s Bank of China and the Bank of Japan to keep their monetary policies unchanged, the focus of investors will once again be on the publication of activity indicators in both countries.
In China, the focus will be on the NBS manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI, as well as the S&P Caixin manufacturing PMI for September.
In Japan, retail sales and unemployment rate data for August will be released.