The European Commission has raised the growth forecast for the Spanish economy to 2.2% in 2023, which represents an improvement of three tenths compared to the 1.9% of the spring forecast, but has worsened those for 2024 – when will impact the slowdown of the main economies of the euro zone – from 2% to 1.9%.
The estimate for 2023 is above the forecasts of both the eurozone and the European Union as a whole, both with a growth forecast of 0.8%, and which implies a decrease, respectively, of three and two tenths compared to May predictions.
Spain thus leads the growth forecast in 2023 of the six largest economies in the EU, among which it appears along with Germany (-0.4%), France (1%), Italy (0.9%), the Netherlands ( 0.5%) and Poland (0.5%).
However, in 2024 the European Commission expects real growth in Spanish GDP to moderate to 1.9%, compared to the 2% forecast in spring, a slowdown that Brussels attributes to the weakening of economic activity expected for the end of the current year. , which will last at least until the first half of 2024. The forecast revises downwards the growth of the EU economy from the 1.7% expected in spring to 1.4%, as well as that of the euro zone, which drops from 1.6% to 1.3% in 2024.
The European Commission also lowers the forecast for Spanish inflation to 3.6% for the current year, four tenths below the decline predicted in May for 2023, while raising the forecast for 2024 by two tenths, to 2.9%. .
This figure is also well below the community inflation forecast, which is expected to be 6.5% throughout the European Union by 2023 – compared to the previous forecast of 6.7% – and decline to 3.2% in 2024, also one tenth below the May forecasts.
Regarding the eurozone, inflation has been revised downwards for 2023 compared to the spring, going from 5.8% to 5.6% for 2023, but it increases by one tenth and rises to 2.9% for 2024.
This new slowdown is expected despite the upward pressure derived from the expected gradual disappearance of government measures applied to mitigate the impact of high energy prices.
Core inflation, which excludes energy and food, will decline more gradually, as the impact of high prices will persist during the first half of 2023.
Community services have explained that the delay of the summer economic forecasts, which are usually published in the month of July, allows key data published during the summer to be taken into account, including information on real GDP growth in the third quarter and inflation in August in order to offer a more accurate image of the economic situation and prospects for the fall.
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