Nadia Calviño and Margarita Delgado face a decisive week to project themselves as leaders of the EIB and the SSM

The European Union is based on delicate territorial balances. Seeking to gain share in these distributions, Spain has launched three candidatures in pursuit of important awards. One is that of the acting economic vice president, Nadia Calviño, who aspires to be the president of the European Investment Bank (EIB), the financial arm of the EU with a balance of about 500,000 million and which lends about 70,000 million a year. Another is headed by the deputy governor of the Bank of Spain, Margarita Delgado, who is running to preside over the Single Supervisory Mechanism (MUS), the body of the European Central Bank that serves to control the large banks in the Union. And it has also been presented to Madrid as the headquarters to house the new European anti-laundering authority (AMLA), taking advantage of Spain’s extensive experience in the fight against the financing of terrorism.

Next week the ECB Council decides on the presidency of the banking supervision mechanism. With an extensive career in supervision, both at the Bank of Spain and at the ECB, Margarita Delgado had the best resume for the position on paper. To the point that this is how the Economics Committee of the European Parliament assessed it. However, the unanimous recommendation of parliamentarians is not binding. And the position is chosen in a secret vote in which the governors of the national banks and the six members of the ECB executive committee participate, including the president of the Eurobank, Christine Lagarde, and the vice president, Luis de Guindos.

Delgado’s bet has lost strength because the Germans are pressing for their own candidate, the German Claudia Buch, vice president of the Bundesbank, to keep that responsibility. They have reached an agreement with Italy to support them in exchange for their support for the new Italian member of the Executive Committee of the ECB, who will succeed Fabio Panetta, also a transalpine, who is leaving to lead the Bank of Italy. And President Lagarde approves of these moves. So Delgado’s appointment has been complicated despite having an ideal technical profile.

This situation was already the case before the Spanish Government announced Calviño’s aspiration to lead the EIB. As there are now two Spanish candidacies running at the same time, these can harm each other to the extent that it is very difficult for two posts to be awarded consecutively to the same country. “Although one position is very technical and the other more political, the closeness of the dates and the distribution between States does not help,” financial sources acknowledge.

Margarita Delgado, deputy governor of the Bank of Spain. Pablo Monge

Thus, if Delgado were elected next week, the EIB presidency for Calviño would move away. In turn, the vice president’s candidacy prevents the government from pursuing the SSM position with the same zeal, partly because it requires German support for the investment bank. The two presidencies, that of the EIB and that of the SSM, could not be held, say sources familiar with the negotiations.

Although the chair of the European Investment Bank enjoys a greater projection and the institution represents an important financing channel for Spain, these sources see the presidency of the SSM as something more important, since it entails the supervision of the main banks in the euro area, especially after the Credit Suisse crisis. In the financial sector they agree with this reading and underline the influence that the deputy governor would have from that position.

The fight with Vestager

That said, Calviño’s candidacy for the EIB is better positioned than Delgado’s, although the deputy governor still has options. The Government had considered former vice president Elena Salgado for the investment bank. But this she changed for Calviño, who has a prestigious career in Brussels and, being the current head of Economy, she is in the circles where the decision is made. As soon as the until now vice president of the European Commission, Margrethe Vestager, appeared for the EIB, the Executive understood that she would only have possibilities with a profile like Calviño’s. “Only a candidacy with my name had the best chance of succeeding,” the vice president even said after the announcement. She was the only one big enough to take on a challenger as powerful as Vestager, who has built an excellent reputation trying to put a stop to the dominance of big American technology companies like Google.

The former Minister of Economy of Denmark also starts with the advantage that the small states of the north, the Baltics and some Eastern countries will probably support her. But this process is not like that of Eurovision: large countries have a greater participation in the capital and a qualified majority is required, which is obtained with the vote of at least 18 countries, as long as they reach 68% of the capital. That is to say, the union of small states is not enough. The big ones will be key to achieving the shareholding percentage. In this context, Spain believes it has secured the support of Germany and France, although they have not yet made their positions public.

In any case, in Berlin they did not like Vestager’s statements stating that the EIB should take more risks. Although the German Economy Minister belongs to the liberals, like Vestager, the decision will be made by Olaf Scholz’s chancellery, who belongs to the same socialist family as Calviño.

More information

In Paris, as confirmed by this newspaper, the future president of the EIB is expected to have a favorable attitude towards nuclear energy investments: Calviño has already said that he will proceed based on what the EU taxonomy says and the decisions of the council Of the entity. Vestager, on the other hand, has traditionally been more firmly against it. And he has recently had a conflict with the Elysée because he wanted to appoint as chief competition economist an expert of American nationality who had worked as a consultant for large American technology companies, circumstances that bothered the French. Although they belong to the same political family as the European liberals, Macron’s government could leave the Dane in the lurch.

On the other hand, it weighs against Calviño that there are few countries with socialist governments. And the PP will not support him before cabinets of the same color because the popular ones consider that the candidacy has been presented by an acting Executive without consulting the opposition. The contest is open, but the vice president has before her a great opportunity after the failed attempts to reach the leadership of the IMF and the presidency of the Eurogroup (this one escaped her by only one vote, despite having the support of Germany, France and Italy).

The decision will be discussed at the next meeting of finance ministers, which will take place in Santiago de Compostela on September 15 and 16. But it could happen that nothing is concluded at that meeting and the election is postponed. There is room, since the mandate of the current president, the German Werner Hoyer, runs until the end of the year. And if Calviño does not win the position, she could always run for commissioner after the European elections.

Anti-money laundering authority

Regarding the headquarters of the anti-money laundering authority, Spain has accumulated extensive experience in the fight against money laundering and terrorist financing. The competent Spanish body, Sepblac, is very well regarded in the EU. However, the first drafts in which this authority was designed contemplated that it be located in a city where synergies could occur. The European banking authority (EBA) and the financial markets regulator (ESMA) are located in Paris. In Frankfurt, the ECB. Spain managed to have this statement removed from the texts. But even so, according to knowledgeable sources, it seems that this aspect will still be very relevant in the deliberations. Thus, Calviño’s candidacy is the Spanish bet that appears to have the greatest possibilities in the always difficult distribution of balances.

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