The start of the XV Legislature with the election of the president of the Congress of Deputies and that of the members of the Bureau already offers a lot of information about the possible scenarios for the investiture. The rounds of consultations that the King will inaugurate with the spokespersons of the parliamentary groups are intended to clarify whether, as it appears, only Pedro Sánchez has the capacity to agglutinate a sufficient majority to be re-elected. Felipe VI will entrust the task of forming a Government at the end of said exploratory work. There are no deadlines for an institutional procedure that should not take much time. The investiture session does not have a specific calendar either, but it is not hidden from anyone that it will be called at the most appropriate time for whoever aspires to govern.
In this context, we will read analyzes of the legal and political margin with which the president of Congress and the King will order their actions until they lead to a candidate for the investiture. Nor will there be a lack of reports that imagine any hypothesis so that whoever decides always knows how to operate. This is not, however, the issue that should attract the most attention. The key element from a political perspective is, in my opinion, closely following the negotiation leading to the structure of an agreement between different parliamentary forces capable of gathering a majority that will allow the formation of a government and avoid an electoral advance. The foundation of the investiture session is none other than granting parliamentary confidence to a candidate around a government program. Something like this does not create much of a mystery if the party that wins the elections gathers a sufficient majority by itself. In this circumstance, the government program coincides with the electoral program of the winner and, consequently, there is nothing to negotiate with anyone. This is not, however, the case at hand. How to form a legislature program capable of attracting the confidence of the parliamentary majority constitutes, in short, the challenge that the voters left on 23-J to whoever attends the investiture.
Indeed, the candidate who is finally proposed by the King will need to have the agreement of many in order to be elected president. Ordinary citizens know that adding wills requires accommodating the interests and proposals of those with whom—whether you want it or not—you need to agree. Simple as that. It goes without saying that the space for agreement becomes impossible when in a government program everything is based on principles. And this because the principles, if they really are, constitute insurmountable red lines that make agreement impossible. No political party can renounce its principles. A party can, however, renounce proposals no matter how important they are. You can also reformulate them or postpone their execution. You can even turn them into an aspirational claim. Those who come to negotiate with principles as their motto do not seek agreement. More nuances require the analysis of those who propose initiatives that go beyond the current legal or budgetary frameworks. In these cases the agreement is extremely difficult and depending on the ability of those who negotiate everything can end in a fiasco. The agreement is, however, possible and will depend on the margin that the political actors grant themselves for the transaction as a highway to reach a space of understanding where the benefit is mutual.
Well then, citizens have the opportunity to observe over the next few days the climate with which each one prepares the foundations of the negotiation and the margin of the agreement that the legislature can make feasible. It is enough to analyze the way in which one and the other speak or remain silent to appreciate the firmness that sustains the purpose of the agreement. I propose that we also observe what each one claims as a condition to participate in the majority that leads to forming a government and what guarantees of compliance are required. And, above all, let us be attentive to those who leave the field of proposals to lead the negotiation to the field of principles. The excuse of the principles are the alarm signal that can anticipate a non-agreement.
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