Brussels fears that Russia will spread its tentacles in the Sahel after the coup in Niger

The EU is extremely concerned by the military coup in Niger, considered the last partner of the West in the Sahel region, plagued by the rise of extremism. The president, Mohamed Bazoum, separated by a group of senior military officers, remains detained by members of his security guard, according to community sources. Fears are growing that Niger, a country of 25 million inhabitants, will join the states of the region governed by military juntas, such as Mali or Burkina Faso, in an environment of autocrats directly or indirectly supported by the Kremlin. In addition to the human crisis and instability for a citizenry that has suffered from extremist violence for years, Brussels fears that Russia will take advantage of the military coup to spread its tentacles in the region and increase its influence in the Sahel, where the group of mercenaries already operates. Wagner, according to high community sources.

“What is happening in Niger interests Russia,” explains a diplomat who knows the Sahel very well, where he has been stationed for years. It is not that he believes that Moscow is behind what happened, but he does believe that an opportunity is opening up for him. And that has already begun to be seen. On Thursday, the coup junta broke its defense agreements with France and moved closer to the military regimes in Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea-Conakry. And also to Russia, whose flag is displayed at demonstrations in Niamey. Meanwhile, international pressure is mounting for the military junta to restore constitutional order, with an ultimatum from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) expiring at midnight on Sunday. The organization, which has already imposed sanctions on Niger, has raised a possible military intervention if democracy is not restored. The coup leaders closed the country’s airspace minutes before the ECOWAS deadline expired.

Since his imprisonment, President Bazoum himself has issued warnings in a letter published by The Washington Post: “The entire central region of the Sahel could fall under Russian influence through the Wagner group (the paramilitary organization).” Despite being watched, the deposed leader maintains close and continuous contacts with some African and Western leaders, and with the leadership of community institutions, such as the High Representative for Foreign Policy, Josep Borrell. The head of community diplomacy, after a conversation on Saturday with the Algerian Foreign Minister, Ahmed Ataf, stated that both share “the concern and the desire to avoid an escalation that would have serious consequences for an already fragile region.”

“The motivations of the coup plotters are above all personal, in the context of a reform of the presidential guard that Bazoum apparently intended to carry out. The coup plotters, like General (Abdourahamane) Tchiani, above all want to stay in power”, analyzes the French researcher Lauriane Devoize, from the European Council on International Relations (ECFR) think tank. Although she then adds to the general fear: “In my opinion, Wagner is crouching and there is no doubt that the group will try to take advantage of the coup if it is successful. The visit of the Nigerien General (Salifou) Mody to Bamako (Mali’s capital) could mean that the coup plotters want to follow in the footsteps of their neighbor”. During that visit, the coup leaders had asked for Wagner’s help, the Associated Press reported on Saturday, citing an analyst at the Soufan Center, a center for security and conflict studies.

Niger is one of the poorest countries on the planet, although with the ousted leader it maintained a modernizing program, such as education for girls and the reduction of the birth rate, the highest in the world, with an average of more than seven children. per woman. Until a few days ago, Europe stood out as one of the countries in the region that had resisted a coup attempt, in March 2021, two months before the one that occurred in Mali, which began to change the geopolitical tableau. in the zone. In addition, he had experienced a transition in power between two democratically elected presidents: the ousted Mohamed Bazoum succeeded Mahammadou Issoufou.

A protester displayed an image of the ousted Mohamed Bazoum at a protest against the military coup in Niger on Saturday, during a rally in Paris. STEPHANIE LECOCQ (REUTERS)

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“So far it has been a stable and reliable partner with whom the Europeans have worked well,” explains Devoize. In Brussels there was great interest in keeping it that way, as demonstrated by the visit of the high representative just two weeks before the coup. Niger has the fourth uranium reserve in the world, was the seventh world producer in 2022 and is one of the main suppliers of France, where 70% of electrical energy is of nuclear origin. It also has phosphate, gold, coal, and oil. In addition, the ousted government collaborated in containing migration in the area, something of vital importance for Europe, fearful and divided by the migratory flows that reach the Mediterranean by crossing the Sahel. “For the EU, if the coup succeeds, it will have disastrous consequences for two crucial elements of cooperation with Niger: the fight against terrorism and the fight against migrant smuggling,” adds the ECFR researcher.

The Kremlin has spent years extending its influence in Africa, where it has increased its arms sales deals and investments in critical raw materials, hydrocarbons and precious minerals and where it has positioned mercenaries from the Wagner Company to protect like-minded leaders and interests. Russians in the region. The Russian paramilitaries are in several African countries, but they are particularly active in the Central African Republic —a country already considered practically their fiefdom— Mali, Sudan and Libya.

Added to all this are habitual disinformation and influence campaigns through social networks, according to various investigations. Western intelligence is now investigating whether in the weeks leading up to the coup, Russia launched targeted disinformation and destabilization campaigns. So far, no evidence has been found, according to an intelligence officer from a European country. They have detected information campaigns coinciding with the coup and, above all, with the Russia-Africa summit held at the end of July in Saint Petersburg with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

In this case, the data suggests that Moscow moves more opportunistically, says the intelligence source. A diagnosis shared by various community sources. The head of Wagner’s mercenaries, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has already offered his services to the leaders of the Niger coup. In fact, one of the coup leaders has traveled to Mali in recent days, where he has met with Malian leaders and people linked to Wagner, according to intelligence sources. “What happened in Niger has been brewing for years,” Prigozhin has come to say on one of his Telegram channels.

The rebellion of Prigozhin and his men against the Kremlin in June, which exposed the cracks in Putin’s regime, does not seem to have altered a reality: Russia needs its mercenaries and the businessman in Africa. Prigozhin was present in Saint Petersburg during the summit with about fifteen African leaders – a dwindling delegation since the last time, two years ago – and can be seen in photos posted on Facebook together with one of the Central African regime’s security chiefs.

On July 30, thousands of coup supporters took to the streets in the capital, Niamey, waving Russian flags and chanting pro-Kremlin, anti-France and colonialism slogans. The coup leaders have also spread the false news that the French Army is prepared to intervene and restore President Bazoum, points out a senior community source.

For now, Western countries have focused on evacuating their citizens. France has already evacuated more than a thousand people, French and fifty other nationalities, and Spain has repatriated fifty Niger nationals. But the EU mission for police training and border protection and the humanitarian mission, considered essential personnel, will remain in the country, community sources explain.

For its part, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has decreed sanctions against Niger and the EU has suspended direct budgetary aid and security cooperation. “A destabilization of Niger would pose serious security risks to its neighboring countries and beyond, in the Gulf of Guinea, and the first beneficiaries will be jihadist groups. From a political point of view, if the coup is successful, there is a risk of a contagion effect in other countries, hence the firmness of ECOWAS, since the credibility of the organization and the future of the region are at stake, both on the political level and on the security level”, Devoize points out again.

The turmoil on the southern flank – a broad and somewhat vague geographical, strategic and military concept that encompasses North Africa, the Sahel and the Middle East – also worries NATO. At the Vilnius summit, the final declaration stressed the explosive mix of institutional fragility, climate change and the proliferation of terrorist organizations and denounced an action by Russia to fuel tensions and instability in these regions. However, despite the fact that the question of the southern flank is of the greatest interest to Spain, Italy or Portugal, Russia’s war against Ukraine has displaced the debate on the southern flank and established new cooperation formulas for the Alliance. Allied sources point out that what happened in Niger could revive the talks.

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