Spain is at the gates of the third heat wave of the summer. As reported this Sunday by the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet), a very hot and dry African continental air mass will enter the south of the Peninsula and cause an increase in temperatures, atypical even for this time, from Monday until Thursday in most of the Peninsula. In addition to the consequences that this may have for people’s health, this organization has warned that this new episode of heat will intensify the risk of forest fires in the coming days, which is already very high or extreme.
At the moment, as reported by the Aemet spokesman, Rubén del Campo, this Sunday the rise in temperatures will continue in the southern half of the peninsula after the mass of cold air that cooled the northern zone: it is expected that temperatures will reach 36 and 38 ° in large areas of the southwestern third of the peninsula, 40 ° in the Guadiana valley and 42 ° in the south. The northern third of the peninsula will continue with cool temperatures due to the north wind. Much of Andalusia, Murcia, the Mediterranean coast and the Ebro valley are at extreme risk this Sunday. The center of the peninsula, especially Castilla y León, is at very high risk. Several regions in western Andalusia and central Extremadura are under orange warning this Sunday due to temperatures between 40° and 42°.
On Monday and Tuesday temperatures will rise, although on Monday they will remain cool even in the Mediterranean area. This rise will be especially significant in the northern half, especially on Tuesday. During these two days it will reach 40° and 42° in large areas of the southwest of the peninsula. On Tuesday, temperatures between 36° and 40° will be reached in areas of the northern half, especially in Galicia and in the interior of the Cantabrian Sea, where until now summer has been quite cool.
What is the probability of exceeding 40ºC during the #OlaDeCalor?
It will be very high (above 80 or 90%) on Monday and Tuesday in areas of the southern peninsula. On Wednesday, also in the downtown area and northern points; on Thursday the high probability will be moved to the southeast. pic.twitter.com/6RTSXmy7qh
— AEMET (@AEMET_Esp) August 6, 2023
On Wednesday temperatures will rise even more, especially in the Cantabrian area and the eastern half of the peninsula, although temperatures are also expected to begin to drop in the extreme west. Always according to the Aemet forecast, Wednesday will probably be the peak day of this third heat wave of the summer and it could reach or exceed 42° and 44° in large areas of the southern half and central zone, and 40 ° in areas of the eastern Cantabrian Sea, the center of the northern plateau and the Ebro valley.
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Minimum temperatures will also be very high during this episode, with nights above 20°, known as tropical, and even above 25°, in the southern half, central zone, and Mediterranean area. As of Thursday the 10th, it is likely that temperatures will begin to drop in the northwest of the peninsula. The temperatures will continue to drop in the rest of the areas of the Peninsula from that day on. The temperatures will continue to be high, but milder than the previous days. As for the Canary Islands, the African air mass will begin to affect the archipelago on Wednesday the 9th.
Although it is necessary to wait for attribution studies to confirm the relationship between extreme weather events and climate change, in the case of heat waves there is a clear link between global warming and the increase in these episodes of high temperatures . In fact, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the reference scientific organization for monitoring this serious planetary problem, considers that climate change is producing not only more heat waves, but also more heat waves. but also that they are more intense.
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