Twelve years after 15-M –or the peak of the brick crisis that motivated it– the successive electoral appointments have glimpsed the rebalancing of the party system, with PP and PSOE as majority formations but with a disruptive factor of blocks motivated by the irruption of new formations at the extremes of the traditional ones. De facto disappeared Cs, Podemos –whatever it is called in each enclave–, together or without IU, and Vox will determine numerous mayors of Andalusia with the direction of their vote in the inauguration. In capitals and symbolic squares such as Granada and Seville, these minority forces will be key if the demoscopic forecasts are met.
The rural/urban dichotomy and the size of the habitat will also determine the result of 28-M. According to the Center for Andalusian Studies (Centra) in its analysis of the last electoral cycle of 2018-2019 -with regional, general and municipal governments in a period of six months-, “the Socialist Party obtains much better results than the rest of the forces in the rural environment and in the municipalities with the smallest number of inhabitants, while the PP achieves its best results in the largest urban centers”.
The current elections have a certain parallelism with the first electoral appointments of the decade, that is, the municipal and general ones of 2011, in which the PSOE accused the punishment of the second legislature of President Rodríguez Zapatero, which led to an absolute majority of the PP in Congress. Despite this, the PSOE achieved more councilors in all of Andalusia than the PP (3,856 compared to 3,148) with a lower percentage of the vote (32.5% compared to 39.36%) and its best result of the decade in general elections (25 of the 61 Andalusian seats with 36.6% of the vote). The polls will measure this 28-M, which in Andalusia is presented as a second round of the regional elections and the first leg of the general elections, if Pedro Sánchez is electorally an updated version of ZP. In symbolic municipalities like the Andalusian capital, the campaign slogan is “Seville, and only Seville.”
Starting in 2015, the rules of the game changed with the fragmentation of the left with the arrival of Podemos on the scene. In the municipal elections, the PSOE has gone from 3,856 councilors, with 32.5% of the votes in 2011 to 4,081 in 2015 (34.32%) and 4,209 (36.91%) in 2019. The PP obtained 3,148 councilors in 2011 (39.36%), 2,681 in 2015 (30.19%) and 2,486 in 2019 (26.79%).
The Centra study confirms that the impact of the new formations is much more moderate at the municipal level, “where the parties with the longest standing and territorial implantation continue to maintain a comfortable distance from the emerging ones, whose potential voters seem to continue opting largely for the most consolidated formations or by specifically local offers”.
What factors influence the vote? Political sociology offers three classic models to explain the vote: sociological (social class, origin, religion); psychosociological, in terms of the left-right axis, nationalism, etc.; and the one that considers the strategic aspects of the vote, that is, “a more or less intuitive calculation of the costs and benefits, not only economic, associated with the different options”. In Andalusia, the rural/urban dichotomy comes into play, hence the great importance that the parties have been giving to the primary sector. 30% of the votes come from the rural world.
The fragmentation of the vote since 15-M has been qualified. In 2019, the municipal authorities once again dyed the multicolored map, especially in red and blue, with “a significant irruption of Vox in very localized areas, such as western Almería and Campo de Gibraltar, and a continuity in the constant growth of Cs». The end of the cycle with the municipal ones reversed this situation in favor of PP and PSOE. The lack of roots of the emerging parties has been key. However, their votes can elect the mayor in numerous places. Teresa Rodríguez, from Adelante, said yesterday that where she can, she will prevent the right from holding power, but she also refused to be “the crutch” of the PSOE. In one of the municipalities on the wire, Granada, the popular candidate Marifrán Carazo prefers to wait for the results before the offer of the socialist Cuenca that the most voted list govern. Espinosa de los Monteros stressed that Vox will give “a good surprise” and will be decisive in many places.
