The reading that the Socialist ranks made yesterday of the latest CIS poll on the 28-M elections is not in line with what was dictated by the official message from Moncloa. For the PSOE, the José Félix Tezanos barometer confirms, above all, that the first week of the electoral campaign has been more favorable for the right than for them. The pressure of the polls, the fear that the change of cycle will start on Sunday, is already felt in the federations, where, moreover, in the most important ones they share the same reflection: the less the president of the Government appears, Pedro Sánchez, in the campaign, better, because “he remembers Bildu.”
Moncloa has imposed its criteria in these elections against the opinion of some of its barons, and, in response, in the party they are already sharpening the “knives” against the team of the President of the Government for the day after the vote. It is enough to delve a little into the bowels of these territorial electoral teams to touch the anger of the structures with specific positions of the most trusted nucleus of the president.
For Moncloa, victory is to endure, “the victory of the resistance”, but from within the PSOE they warn that what they resist in these elections will be, mainly, thanks to the “barons”, who “throw” much more than the brand by Pedro Sanchez.
In addition, in the PSOE they take it for granted that the result of the general elections will be worse than that of this Sunday because in fiefdoms such as Castilla-La Mancha, Extremadura or Valencia, for example, Emiliano García-Page, Guillermo Fernández Vara or Ximo Puig have more vote drag capacity than that of Sánchez as a candidate.
Or put another way, the PP will receive more votes in these communities in a general one than in a regional one, which aggravates the anxiety of the Socialists about the future. The movements that are beginning to be noticed in the PSOE therefore point directly against the electoral machinery of Moncloa, where they believe that adjustments should be made, “at least”, if bad forecasts are confirmed on election night.
It is the president’s “plumbers” who are in the party’s target, and who will be personally responsible for the results of 28-M. The complaints range from “not listening” to “only looking out of Pedro’s interest.” If there is a stumbling block on election night, the demand that the operation of the Moncloa machinery be reviewed will be felt within the socialist organization.
The federations of Andalusia, Extremadura, Castilla-La Mancha, Aragón and also Valencia are the most critical of the strategic management of the campaign.
In Sánchez’s team, for their part, they are already drawing up the argument with which to minimize the fact that the PP may be the party with the most votes in the municipal elections -in which most private polls agree, except for the CIS . It is a complicated task because it requires erasing from the political memory the referents of the demoscopic history that confirm that these national elections always mark a trend with respect to the general ones that follow them.
In Moncloa they cross their fingers so that on election night they can grab some symbolic victory in order to cover up the party’s general loss of power in these elections and its consequences in the next general ones. The worst scenario would be that a bigger than expected defeat coincides with the fact that Page achieves, in turn, the feat of a new absolute majority.
On the other hand, if the PP has begun to get the buzz out of the most voted list again, it is to prepare the ground for the agreements that it will reach with Vox if it has government options. Socialists and popular know that the slogan of the most voted list is a toast to the sun, but it is a tactical path that the PP uses to distort, or at least try to, the focus of attention, and that, instead of pointing towards them , point to the socialist leadership for not accepting your offer.
Beyond tactics and speeches, the PP’s post-electoral negotiation strategy will be adjusted to the results that Vox has achieved in the “square” under discussion. The PP does not want to talk now about agreements with those of Santiago Abascal because until the day of the vote arrives all their efforts are aimed at continuing to work for the useful vote, and then, with the results already in hand, they will decide the path to continue.
On Sunday, the relationship of the PP and Vox is also measured, at present and with derivatives in the general elections, as well as the resistance capacity of Podemos. The latter will be what determines how the negotiation between Yolanda Díaz and Pablo Iglesias ends after the elections. By the way, the participation factor is worrying in the ranks of the left, for fear of a puncture, especially from the young electorate.
