Two tenths and barely 6,000 votes. That what separates Isabel Diaz Ayuso of the absolute majority in Madrid less than a week before the polls open. The president of the Community and candidate of the PP, with the 48.5% of the voteshas insured 67 seats. There are 11 more than the three lefts (Más Madrid, PSOE and Podemos), which once again leaves Vox without the ability to influence the Government of the Community of Madrid, unless he voted for a candidate agreed with the entire left.
According to the Data10 electoral poll for OKDIARIO, the last to be published in the media before 28M, since as of this Tuesday the Electoral Law prohibits disseminating polls, two tenths is also the difference that separates Podemos from being or not a extra-parliamentary party. With 5.2% of the votes, the purple formation would enter the regional Assembly with seven deputies. However, if Podemos does not reach 5%, it will be left out without a single seat. One thing or the other depends on just 6,000 votes.
From this circumstance, that Podemos does not reach the minimum percentage required to have parliamentary representation in the Community of Madrid, it depends that Ayuso’s triumph is even more forceful. If Podemos is left without deputies, the absolute majority of the PP is assured and will be comfortable due to the policy of remnants of the Ley D’Hondt that governs our electoral system.
The 67 seats that the Data10 survey predicts for Ayuso are two more than those he obtained two years ago, which places it one of the absolute majority (in 2021 the total number of seats was 138, one less than today); This represents the greatest growth experienced by any of the parties that are competing in the Assembly. The PP will go from 44.8% to 48.5% of the votes. will be 1,775,488 people from Madrid those who will support the current president, almost 150,000 more than two years ago, a figure that is close to three times as many as those who will vote for the errejonista Monica Garcia (655,283) and the socialist Juan Lobato (647,962). In addition, the PP will have almost 10 times more votes than Podemos, despite the furious campaign that the hosts led by Pablo Iglesias in the shadow they have unleashed on the president.
The struggle for hegemony in the left bloc leans on the side of Más Madrid for the second time in a row. Those of Mónica García grow by one deputy compared to 2021 and widen their margin of difference with respect to the PSOE, which maintains its 24 deputies and will repeat as the third political force in Madrid.
After the socialists will be Vox, with 12 seats, one less than those it enjoyed in the Assembly. The candidature headed by Dew Monastery endures the Ayuso hurricane, barely loses 0.7 tenths of popular support, but will continue without the ability to influence the re-election of the Madrid president, since only an agreement of the entire left with Vox would add more seats than the PP will have . Therefore, if between now and Sunday Ayuso does not get the two tenths of the vote that she lacks for an absolute majority, she may be re-elected again in the second vote, where she is sufficient with a simple majority.
Technical sheet of the Data10 survey for OKDIARIO
